Visceral Leishmaniasis in Kenya

AM2NTD has supported Kenya’s Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) program in establishing outbreak thresholds at the sub-county level across endemic counties, in response to a recent surge in VL cases.

These thresholds were tailored to the local epidemiological context, enabling more timely and targeted outbreak detection. In parallel, the modelling team provided technical assistance in the development of national Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for VL outbreak detection and response, patient referral and follow-up, and active case search strategies.

Building on this foundation, six years of routine health facility data have been analyzed to identify factors associated with VL incidence and mortality. Advanced machine learning models are being applied to this dataset to uncover critical gaps in the surveillance system and generate actionable insights for program improvement.

Ongoing Work

By integrating programmatic VL case data with entomological surveillance, the project aims to generate high-resolution transmission hotspot maps. These outputs will help guide targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation, and accelerate progress toward VL control and elimination in the region.